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Alejandro A. Tagliavini

"Quizá haya enemigos de mis opiniones, pero yo mismo, si espero un rato, puedo ser también enemigo de mis opiniones. ", J.L. Borges

Something Really Strange Is Happening At Hospitals All Over America

Thursday, Nov 04, 2021 – 05:11 AM

by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

In a year that has been filled with so many mysteries already, I have another very odd one to share with you.  Emergency rooms are filled to overflowing all over America, and nobody can seem to explain why this is happening.  Right now, the number of new COVID cases in the United States each day is less than half of what it was just a couple of months ago.  That is really good news, and many believe that this is a sign that the pandemic is fading.  Let us hope that is true.  With less people catching the virus, you would think that would mean that our emergency rooms should be emptying out, but the opposite is actually happening.  All across the country, emergency rooms are absolutely packed, and in many cases we are seeing seriously ill patients being cared for in the hallways because all of the ER rooms are already full.

Let me give you an example of what I am talking about.  The following comes from an article entitled “ERs Are Swamped With Seriously Ill Patients, Although Many Don’t Have Covid”

Inside the emergency department at Sparrow Hospital in Lansing, Michigan, staff members are struggling to care for patients showing up much sicker than they’ve ever seen.

Tiffani Dusang, the ER’s nursing director, practically vibrates with pent-up anxiety, looking at patients lying on a long line of stretchers pushed up against the beige walls of the hospital hallways. “It’s hard to watch,” she said in a warm Texas twang.

But there’s nothing she can do. The ER’s 72 rooms are already filled.

Can anyone explain why this is happening?

If the number of COVID cases was starting to spike again, it would make sense for emergency rooms to be overflowing.

But at this particular hospital in Michigan, we are being told that some of the main things that are being treated include “abdominal pain”, “respiratory problems”, “blood clots” and “heart conditions”

Months of treatment delays have exacerbated chronic conditions and worsened symptoms. Doctors and nurses say the severity of illness ranges widely and includes abdominal pain, respiratory problems, blood clots, heart conditions and suicide attempts, among other conditions.

That mention of “heart conditions” immediately got my attention, because I have been seeing this so much in the news recently.

For instance, a high school senior in Pennsylvania just dropped dead from “a sudden cardiac incident”

The high school soccer manager ‘greatly enjoyed’ his team’s championship victory Saturday. Later that evening, he was dead.

Now, late student Blake Barklage’s high school is mourning his untimely death. As 6ABC in Philly reports, the tragedy occurred at La Salle College High School in Montgomery County, Pa.

In a letter to parents, the school announced that the senior died after ‘a sudden cardiac incident’ Saturday night.

Elsewhere in the same state, an otherwise healthy 12-year-old boy just suddenly died because of an issue with his coronary artery…

As family and friends grieve, the cause of death is in for a 12-year-old taken way too soon while warming up for school basketball practice.

As TribLive in Pittsburgh reports, Jayson Kidd, 12, of Bridgeville, Pa., died of natural causes involving his coronary artery, according to the Allegheny County Medical Examiner’s Office.

Heart problems kill elderly people all the time, but it is odd that so many healthy young people have been having these problems.

Over the weekend, Barcelona striker Sergio Aguero suddenly collapsed on the pitch during a match.

He was later diagnosed with “a cardiac arrhythmia”

Sergio “Kun” Aguero, a striker for the Barcelona soccer team, has been diagnosed with a cardiac arrhythmia after collapsing during Saturday’s match against Alaves.

The 33-year-old Argentinian was examined by medical staff at the stadium before being taken to a nearby hospital where he is still waiting to undergo further examination.

Just two days later, a match in Norway was brought to a screeching halt after a player experienced “cardiac arrest” right in the middle of a match…

A football match in Norway’s second division was halted on Monday after Icelandic midfielder Emil Pálsson suffered a cardiac arrest during play.

The 28-year-old Sogndal player suffered the attack as the game against Stjordals-Blink entered the 12th minute, his club said in a statement.

I have been seeing so many stories like this.

So why are so many young people suddenly having such serious problems with their hearts?

Can anyone out there explain this to me?

Elon Musk, a wise man

By Alejandro A. Tagliavini *

                       As I have explained in previous notes, succinctly, today there are three economic theories. Keysianism, which we know for being a great setter of bubbles, print and print money bills believing that this is how they move the economy and what they achieve is an artificial balloon that when explodes destroys more than what eventually achieved. Then, the neoclassical economic theory -the preferred one of market operators who distrust exaggerated issuance- whose characteristic consists in believing in the equilibrium -of the supply and demand curve- of the market, which implies that perfect knowledge has been reached and, therefore, that it is static and rigid: the company is only a productive function, a means to transform inputs into products.

                  And, finally, the theory of the natural market («free» from artificial State interference), initiated by the Spanish scholastics of the School of Salamanca of the 15th and 16th centuries, and taken up, to some extent, by the Austrian School of Economy that knows that there is no equilibrium -because there is no perfect, static knowledge- but a specific environment in permanent movement, which tends towards equilibrium at the rate at which market players find new knowledge that is always perfectible and pose new horizons that move the point of balance.

                And, therefore, the market is unpredictable and impossible to plan in advance, and a company is precisely a creative function, in search of perfect knowledge that is never reached, and therefore, unpredictable and spontaneous.

                By the way, it is worth a clarification before starting to praise Elon Musk. In a natural market, the supply and demand curve govern for everything, I insist, for the entire cosmos. Also, for personal wealth. That is, contrary to what many believe, exaggerated fortunes compared to the rest of society are not typical of a market where the supply and demand curve governs, for the simple reason that, when others observe that a person is earning a lot of money, they copy him and compete.

              Exaggerated fortunes, on the other hand, are typical of systems intervened by the State – as with the Keynesians and neo-classics – that prevent others from copying these billionaires. A typical case are the laws of «copyright» – as if ideas had an owner – that create true monopolies such as Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, etc. enriching its monopolists in an artificially exaggerated way.

              Thus, it could be said that, while socialism equals downwards by impoverishing everyone with the coercive impositions of bureaucrats, the natural market, on the contrary, equals upwards as there are no barriers to the expansion and creativity of each person.

              And Musk does not escape this definition. If there were no «copyright» laws, it would have much more competition. But, in this world where for the moment and for a long time, I suspect, there will be a strong State intervention, Elon stands out for fighting it while his ultra-millionaire peers stand out for taking advantage of the State.

               The owner of Tesla, among many other achievements, defied the quarantine imposed by the State and won, he is «privatizing» space activity – and its infinite potential – making it much more efficient. And, almost unwittingly, he is the richest man on the planet with a net worth of more than USD 311,000 M, since his flagship company has a market capitalization that far exceeds the world’s largest automakers combined, even when not even close to producing so many cars.

               Tesla is now worth about 16 the value of Ford, but only has 33% of sales. A few days ago, on the back of better-than-expected third-quarter results, MS Research raised its price target for the electric car maker’s stock to $ 1,200 and fell short, though later by a tweet from Musk, there was a correction. And the stock rises almost 900% since the crisis of February 2020 when I personally already recommended its purchase:

                 Of course, for the neo classics, Tesla is overvalued since the «fundamentals» -income, sales, profitability or whatever else that determines the current discounted value of its future cash flows- are not as good, and for months, they wrongly predict their collapse since they do not understand that the market is unpredictable, that it does not move at the whim of the operators or State planners but at its own pace. And, above all, it is not moved by costs, that is, the public never decides how much they want to pay for a product based on how much it costs the manufacturer, they decide to buy if they consider that the price is convenient for them.

                    Thus, the market does not buy the shares based on the fundamentals of the companies but when it senses that this stock has the potential to go up, for different reasons. Many like to talk about «expectations», but it is more like «hope» because expectations refer to the anticipation that these fundamentals will be exceeded in the future, while hope refers to clear, progressive ideas, with breakthroughs and strong leadership they can achieve unthinkable achievements today, and Elon Musk is one of those leaders.

                 By the way, another notable case is that of Bitcoin, whose «fundamentals» also scare the neoclassicals. What are the similarities between Tesla and Bitcoin, are the «fundamentals» improving, are they great hedges against inflation, are there «gamma traps» or is it pure speculation?

                   But Elon, in addition to openly confronting statism, also faces corruption and demagoguery without inferiority complexes. I have no doubt that he was sincere when he offered to sell Tesla shares «right now» if the UN proves that USD 6,000 million solves world hunger.

                    Thus, he challenged the director of the World Food Program (WFP) who asked that billionaires like the South African businessman «step forward now, for the only time.» Few agencies are more corrupt than the United Nations and Elon Musk knows it and thus shared a note from the British newspaper Express about the case of nine-year-old children allegedly forced to give oral sex to UN officials to get food and asked: “What happened here?».

                  If WFP, using transparent and open accounting, «can describe in this Twitter thread exactly how $ 6 bn will solve world hunger, I will sell Tesla shares right now and do it,» Musk wrote on Twitter. «But it should be open-source accounting, so the public can see exactly how the money is being spent,» he added.

                  The WFP bureaucrat responded by saying that he could assure that they had the systems in place for transparency and open-source accounting. I have my serious doubts, but even if it were true, what he does not say is that the larger the WFP budget, the more bureaucrats like him benefit since they are left with a good part in salaries, travel expenses, representation expenses and other niceties.

                    Then the bureaucrat backed off and said that «USD 6,000 M will not solve world hunger but will prevent … a perfect storm due to covid / conflict / climate crisis.» Yes, of course, what he did not clarify is that, strictly speaking, the covid is not the culprit of the crisis but, precisely, the restrictions -quarantines, protocols, etc.- applied by his fellow government bureaucrats almost everywhere in the world.

                  And finally, Elon has criticized attempts to tax billionaires. Another demagogic measure that, of course, to the rich is those who least harm – that is why Bill Gates has no qualms about promoting it – since they have a thousand resources – to increase prices, lower salaries, reinvest in less onerous countries, etc. – to derive taxes down. In other words, when politicians fill their mouths with the demagoguery of «let the rich pay,» it is to disguise that they are going to charge the poor.

* Senior Advisor at The Cedar Portfolio  and Member of the Advisory Council of the Center on Global Prosperity, de Oakland, California

@alextagliavini

www.alejandrotagliavini.com

Elon Musk, Maestro

Por Alejandro A. Tagliavini*

                       Como he explicado en notas anteriores, sucintamente, hoy se dan tres corrientes económicas. El keysianismo, que lo conocemos por ser gran armador de burbujas, emiten y emiten creyendo que así mueven la economía y lo que logran es un globo artificial que al final se pincha y la onda expansiva empora las cosas. Luego, la teoría económica neoclásica -la preferida de los operadores de mercados que desconfían de la emisión exagerada- cuya característica consiste en creer en el equilibrio -de la curva de oferta y demanda- del mercado, lo que implica que se ha llegado al conocimiento perfecto y, por tanto, que éste es estático y rígido: la empresa es solo una función productiva, un medio para transformar insumos en productos.

                  Y, finalmente, la teoría del mercado natural (“libre” de intereferencias artificales desde el Estado), iniciada por los escolásticos españoles de la Escuela de Salamanca de los siglos XV y XVI, y retomada, en alguna medida, por la Escuela Austríaca de Economía que sabe que no existe el equilibrio -porque no hay conocimiento perfecto, estático- sino un entorno puntual en permanente movimiento, que tiende al equilibrio al ritmo en que los actores del mercado encuentran nuevos conocimientos que siempre son perfectibles y plantean nuevos horizontes, mueven el punto de equlibrio.

                Y, por ello, el mercado es imprevisible e imposible de planificar de antemano, mientras que una empresa es, precisamente, una función creativa, en búsqueda del conocimiento perfecto al que nunca se llega, y por tanto, imprevisible y espontánea.

                Por cierto, vale una aclaración antes de empezar a elogiar a Elon Musk. En un mercado natural, rige la curva de oferta y demanda para todo, insisto, para todo el cosmos. También para la riqueza personal. O sea, al contrario de lo que muchos creen, las fortunas exageradas en comparación con el resto de la sociedad no son propias de un mercado donde rige la curva de oferta y demanda, por la simple razón de que, cuando otros observan que una persona está ganado mucho dinero, lo copian y compiten con él.

              Las fortunas exageradas, por el contrario, son propias de sistemas intervenidos por el Estado -como con los keynesianos y neo clásicos- que impiden que otros copien a estos multimillonarios. Un caso típico son las leyes de “propiedad intelectual” -como si las ideas tuvieran dueño- que crean verdaderos monopolios como Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, etc. enriqueciendo a sus monopolistas de manera artificialmente exagerada.

              Así, podría decirse que, mientras que el socialismo iguala hacia abajo empobreciendo a todo el mundo con las coactivas imposiciones de los burócratas, el mercado natural, por el contrario, iguala hacia arriba al no existir barreras para la expansión y creatividad de cada persona.

              Y Musk no escapa a esta definición. De no existir las leyes de “propiedad intelectual” tendría mucha más competencia. Pero, dentro de este mundo en donde de momento y por mucho tiempo, sospecho, existe fuerte intervención estatal Elon se destaca por combatirla mientras que sus pares ultra millonarios se destacan por aprovecharse del Estado.

                El dueño de Tesla, entre otros tantos logros, desafió la cuarentena impuesta por el Estado y ganó, “privatiza” la actividad espacial -y su infinito potencial- haciéndola mucho más eficiente. Y, casi sin quererlo, es el hombre más rico del plantea con un patrimonio neto de más de USD 311.000 M, a partir de que su empresa insignia tiene una capitalización de mercado que supera en mucho a las automotrices más grandes del mundo sumadas, aun cuando ni de cerca produce tantos autos.

               Tesla vale ahora unas 16 el valor de Ford, pero solo tiene el 33% de las ventas. Pocos días atrás, a raíz de los resultados del tercer trimestre mejores de lo esperado, MS Research elevó su precio objetivo para la acción del fabricante de autos eléctricos a USD 1.200 y se quedó corto, aunque luego por un tuit de Musk, hubo una corrección. Y la acción sube casi 900% desde la crisis de febrero de 2020 cuando personalmente ya recomendaba su compra:

                 Claro que para los neo clásicos Tesla está sobrevaluada ya que los “fundamentales” -ingresos, ventas, rentabilidad o cualquier otra cosa que determine el valor actual descontado de sus flujos de efectivo futuros- no cierran y así, desde hace meses, auguran equivocadamente su desplome ya que no entienden que el mercado es imprevisible, que no se mueve al antojo de los operadores o planificadores estatales sino a su propio aire. Y, sobre todo, no se mueve por costos, es decir, el público nunca decide cuánto quiere pagar por un producto según cuánto le cuesta al fabricante, decide comprar si considera que el precio le conviene.

                    Así, el mercado no compra las acciones en base a los fundamentales de las empresas sino cuando intuye que esa acción tiene potencial para subir, por distintas razones. A muchos les gusta hablar de “expectativas”, pero se parece más a “esperanza” porque las expectativas hacen referencia a la previsión de que esos fundamentales se superarán en el futuro, mientras que la esperanza hace referencia a que unas ideas claras, progresistas, con avances importantes y un liderazgo firme pueden obtener logros hoy impensables, y Elon Musk es uno de esos líderes. 

                 Por cierto, otro caso notable es el del Bitcoin cuyos “fundamentales” también asustan a los neoclásicos. ¿Cuáles son las similitudes entre Tesla y Bitcoin? ¿Mejoran los «fundamentales», son grandes coberturas contra la inflación, hay «trampas gamma” o es pura especulación?

                   Pero Elon, además de enfrentar abiertamente al estatismo, enfrenta también sin complejos de inferioridad a la corrupción y la demagogia. No tengo la menor duda de que fue sincero cuando ofreció vender acciones de Tesla “ahora mismo” si la ONU demuestra que USD 6.000 M resuelven el hambre en el mundo.

                    Así desafió al director del Programa Mundial de Alimentos (PMA) quien pidió que multimillonarios como el empresario sudafricano “den un paso al frente ahora, por única vez”. Pocos organismos son más corruptos que las Naciones Unidas y Elon Musk lo sabe y así compartió una nota del diario británico Express sobre el caso de niños de nueve años presuntamente obligados a dar sexo oral a funcionarios de la ONU para conseguir comida y preguntó: “¿Qué pasó aquí?”.

                  Si el PMA, utilizando una contabilidad transparente y abierta, “puede describir en este hilo de Twitter exactamente cómo USD 6.000 M resolverán el hambre mundial, venderé acciones de Tesla ahora mismo y lo haré”, escribió Musk en Twitter. “Pero debe ser una contabilidad de código abierto, para que el público vea con precisión cómo se gasta el dinero”, agregó.

                  El burócrata del PMA le respondió diciendo que podía asegurar que tenían los sistemas establecidos para la transparencia y la contabilidad de código abierto. Tengo mis serias dudas, pero aun cuando fuera cierto, lo que no dice es que cuanto más grande sea el presupuesto del PMA más se benefician los burócratas como él ya que se quedan con buena parte en sueldos, viáticos, gastos de representación y otras lindezas.

                    Luego el burócrata reculó y dijo que “USD 6.000 M no resolverán el hambre mundial, pero evitarán… una tormenta perfecta debido a covid/conflicto/crisis climática”. Si claro, lo que no aclaró es que, en rigor, no es el covid el culpable de la crisis sino, precisamente, las restricciones -cuarentenas, protocolos, etc.- que aplicaron sus colegas burócratas de los gobiernos en casi todo el mundo.

                  Y finalmente, Elon ha criticado los intentos de imponer impuestos a multimillonarios. Otra medida demagógica que, por supuesto, a los ricos es a quienes menos perjudica -por ello Bill Gates no tiene empacho en promoverla- ya que tienen mil recursos -aumentar precios, bajar sueldos, reinvertir en países menos onerosos, etc.- para derivar los impuestos hacia abajo. Es decir, cuando los políticos se llenan la boca con la demagogia de “que paguen los ricos” es para disimular que le van a cobrar a los pobres.

*Asesor Senior en The Cedar Portfolio  y miembro del Consejo Asesor del Center on Global Prosperity, de Oakland, California

@alextagliavini

www.alejandrotagliavini.com

The Vaccine mandate is destroying -freedom- the US

Mandate Meltdown: 26 NYC Firestations Shuttered, LA Sheriff Warns Of ‘Mass Exodus’, Tucson Water District Faces ‘Staff Shortage’

Tyler Durden's Photoby Tyler Durden

Monday, Nov 01, 2021 – 05:11 AM

While the vast majority of employees across most industries and sectors have acquiesced to mandatory vaccine mandates, enough Americans are refusing to get the jab that states and municipalities are losing a dangerous game of chicken with employees who refuse.

On Saturday, the New York Post reported that 26 New York fire companies have been shuttered citywide due to staff shortages caused by the Covid-19 vaccine mandate.

…an “unconscionable” move some fear could have catastrophic consequences, elected officials told The Post Saturday.

The stunning lockdown came amid a pitched battle between City Hall, which will start enforcing a mandate Monday that all workers have at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine — and jab-resisting fire fighters, many reportedly saying they were already sick with the coronavirus and therefore have “natural immunity.” -NY Post

Nicole Malliotakis@NMalliotakis

As of 7:30am this morning, 26 @FDNY companies are closed including 5 in my district due to @NYCMayor locking out unvaccinated firefighters. If someone dies due to a slower emergency response, it’s on Bill de Blasio and his overreaching mandates. I hope this fool fixes it ASAP!

While FDNY Spokesman Jim Long insists that the closings are temporary, and the situation is «fluid,» it’s of no comfort to New Yorkers.

«We’re f–ked. We are going to toast like marshmallows,» retired electrician Vinny Agro, 63, told the Post. «It’s another sad day for New York City.»

Across the Rockies, Los Angeles Country Sheriff Alex Villanueva has warned of an»imminent threat to public safety» caused by a «mass exodus» of thousands of deputies and civilian personnel who refuse to take the jab.

«I could potentially lose 44% of my workforce in one day,» he wrote in a Thursday open letter to the Board of Supervisors, adding that he can’t enforce «reckless mandates that put public safety at risk,» according to LAist.

The county is currently sending notices to employees who have not yet complied with the vaccination policy that they have 45 days from the date of the notice to register as fully vaccinated, according to a statement from the office of County CEO Fesia Davenport.

After the 45 days have passed, employees who have not demonstrated proof of full vaccination or requested a medical or religious exemption will get a five-day suspension and have 30 days after they return from suspension to come into compliance, the statement said.

The Sheriff’s Department — the largest in the country — employs approximately 18,000 people. About half are sworn deputies.

Meanwhile in Arizona, a Tucson Water employee claims the department is ‘losing staff’ over the mandate.

«We are watching employees walk out as I speak in the water quality and operations division,» reports KOLD13.

«We’re pulling people from other areas and other departments to help specifically cover the operations division which is overseeing the water quality and drinking water parameters,» the whistleblower added.

According to the report, three people have left in the last week alone over the vaccine mandate.

«“(We’re) feeling dispensable to our employer that we’ve dedicated our lives to,” the worker said. “In my opinion, it could come to a head where we can’t provide the level of service we were before the mandates.»

While the worker said they’re fearful for the future, they want to reassure Tucsonans the drinking water is safe and they will do everything in their power to make sure it stays that way.

“I drink Tucson water and I care about the quality of it,” the employee said.

We reached out to the city of Tucson about the staff shortage impacting clean drinking water.

“Tucson Water is prepared to continue delivering safe secure clean drinking water,” the city said. “The utility has plans, procedures, practices, and redundancies in place to ensure continuity of operations in the face of reduced staffing and other emergency scenarios.” -KOLD

Now might be a good time to review EM Forster’s 1909 «The Machine Stops» – a cautionary tale of what can happen when a society takes their infrastructure for granted.

TSLA Joins ‘Four Commas’ Club Pushing Musk’s Net Worth Above $250 Billion

by Tyler Durden

Monday, Oct 25, 2021 – 12:43 PM

Update (1235ET): TSLA finally made it into the ‘Cuatro Comas’ Club

…better than the «Tres Comas’ Club

Topping $1,000,000,000,000 in market cap…

AAPL was the first to join in Aug 2018, followed by MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL (then FB, which has slipped back below the $1 trillion …

Will tonight’s FB earnings be enough to push it back above the line? (or further down)?

*  *  *

With Facebook suffering from a PR crisis (as whistleblowers expose the reality that conservative commentators have been called conspiracy theorists about for months), Tesla is rocketing to record highs on a slew of positive headlines (and upgrades).

This relative move has pushed Tesla above Facebook as the 5th largest US company in the S&P 500…(note that this is not the first time TSLA has been larger than FB)

And that leaves Elon Musk dominating Amazon’s Jeff Bezos as the world’s richest man, becoming the first to top the stunning $250 billion net worth level…

We are sure Liz Warren et al. will have something to say about that!!

Peter Schiff: Gold Is An Inflation Safe-Haven, Not Bonds

Via SchiffGold.com,

Gold and bonds are both considered to be safe havens. But in a recent podcast, Peter explained why bonds are not a safe haven in an inflationary environment. In fact, bonds – including US Treasuries – are risk assets when inflation is running hot. If you want safety from inflation, you need to buy gold.

Another gold rally fizzled this week when bond yields pushed up, sparked by rising oil prices. Peter said nothing happening in the bond market should have been a drag on gold and silver. Nevertheless, traders have consistently responded to rising yields or a steepening yield curve by selling gold and silver. The narrative is that rising rates are bearish for the metals — even though real rates remain negative.

Peter said this makes no sense.

Just because the rates are less negative doesn’t mean you have a negative environment for gold and silver. I think as long as rates are negative, that is a huge wind in the sails of gold and silver – because you want to avoid negative interest rates.”

The knock on gold and silver has always been that you forgo interest. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of owning the metals. For example, if interest rates are 10% and you own gold, you’re giving up 10% interest on the money you have in the yellow metal. But when rates are negative, it doesn’t matter.

If they’re negative 2% or negative 10%, nobody wants a negative yield. So, as long as yields are negative, you want to get out of bonds. It doesn’t matter how negative. Once you’re losing, it’s a loss.”

Ultimately, a negative rate environment, no matter how negative, should be bullish for gold and silver.

The other tailwind for gold and silver is traders still expect the Federal Reserve to respond to inflation by tightening monetary policy – and thus raising interest rates.

Oil prices are rising as a result of inflation. Gold should also be rising as a result of inflation. It should not be falling because investors expect the Fed to fight inflation. Again, if the Fed could fight inflation, they’s be fighting it right now. The reason they’re not fighting it, the reason they’re pretending that it’s not a problem, and so there’s no need to fight it, is because they can’t. But they’re never going to admit that. That would be a complete disaster. So, they have to pretend that it’s transitory, that it’s not a real problem, but also pretend that if it ever becomes a real problem, well, they’re going to do something about it. But of course, they can’t do anything about it. So, they won’t.”

Most investors regard Treasuries as a safe haven. They move into bonds when they’re in a risk-off mood. But when inflation is the risk, Treasury bonds lose their safe-haven status. Peter said bonds are never a safe haven against inflation.

Inflation erodes away the purchasing power of all bonds.”

Peter emphasized that it’s got nothing to do with default risk. You’re not concerned about default in an inflationary environment.

You’re concerned about getting paid back in money that doesn’t have much value. It doesn’t matter about the credit quality. The highest credit quality bonds are no different from junk bonds when it comes to the inflation risk. They may be different when it comes to judging default risk. But this is not about default. This is about the value of the principle of the bond going down. So, even if you get repaid, you still are subject to the risk of inflation. So, when inflation is the risk, you don’t have any safety in US Treasuries. Alternatively, you have complete safety in gold. Gold is a safe haven from inflation and bonds are not.”

Nevertheless, investors continue to look at both assets as if they both have the same characteristics. They lump them together as safe-havens. But Peter said Treasuries are a risk asset when it comes to inflation.

They need to trade the opposite of gold. They’re not the same as gold. They’re different. Because gold has a real value. It is not a piece of paper. Gold is a hedge against inflation because gold is an actual commodity whose price rises as a result of inflation alongside of other commodities that also see higher prices in an inflationary environment. So, the two assets have to diverge. And at some point, they will. At some point, weakness in the bond market is going to stop translating to weakness in the gold and silver market when people start to realize how these two assets have actually diverged from one another and are serving completely different roles in the environment we have right now. Because, again, the risk-on asset in an inflationary environment is Treasuries.”

Peter thinks the markets will figure this out eventually.

In an inflationary environment — and we are in the most inflationary environment we’ve ever been in — the riskiest things you can own are bonds. And it doesn’t matter what bond you have. Treasuries are no safer than the riskiest junk bond when the threat is the loss of purchasing power to inflation. The real safe haven in this environment is gold. And as soon as investors understand the difference between gold and Treasuries, they will then start moving into gold as a safe haven, and they will not be deterred in their buying of gold when bonds go down because they will expect bonds to go down. When you’re looking to remove inflation risk from your portfolio, you sell bonds, including Treasuries, and you buy gold and silver.”

In this podcast, Peter also talks about the housing market, Zillow bailing out of the home-flipping business, Biden’s mischaracterization of inflation as a “high class” problem, the US using Soviet propaganda tactics to describe inflation, and the latest in the bitcoin market.

Are You Prepared For The Mass Repricing Of Goods And Services?

Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

Rising consumer price inflation is not going away.  This, of course, is counter to the “transitory” argument made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell earlier this year.

Powell’s cohort, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, recently admitted inflation is not transitory.  This admission comes with assurances the Fed will properly manage it.  We have some reservations.

The effects of rising consumer prices range far and wide.  For one, the pinch rising prices put on consumers is extraordinarily disruptive.  It acts like a hefty tax…eroding family budgets that are already stretched.  In this ongoing stagflation, personal income gains lag far behind rising consumer prices.

Industrial materials and consumer goods companies also feel the pinch.  They can pass on some rising prices to consumers.  They can also absorb through lower profit margins some short term price increases.  But there are natural limits to what price increases can be absorbed and passed along.

When input costs, including raw material and labor, push the costs of the final manufactured goods above what they can readily be sold for the business motive breaks down.  Halting operations makes the most business sense.

One industry feeling the pinch of rising natural gas prices is the fertilizer business.  As we noted several weeks ago, several fertilizer plants in the UK have had to suspend operations because of soaring natural gas prices.  Here in the US we’re not aware of any fertilizer producers suspending operations.  But fertilizer prices are up, nonetheless.

In fact, the Green Markets North American Fertilizer Price Index recently soared to a record high, thus eclipsing the prior record set in 2008.  Sky high fertilizer prices will further raise the cost of food production for farmers.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization’s global food index, food prices are already at a decade high.  Plus, when you factor in the grow season in North America doesn’t begin until late-March, the increased fertilizer input costs, could lead to persistent food inflation well into 2022.

But it’s not just food.  Here’s one instructive example of how price inflation discombobulates the economy…

Someone Gets Squeezed

The price of cotton just surged to a 10-year high.  Rising cotton prices translate into rising jean prices.  Levi Strauss has already raised the price of its jeans, thus passing some of the price inflation to consumers.

Levi Strauss is also realigning its business to account for higher input costs.  This includes aggressive negotiation with cotton suppliers and cutting out the middlemen.  Here are several details:

“In its earnings call, Levi said it has already negotiated most of its product costs through the first half of next year, at very low-single-digit inflation. For the second half of the year, it expects to see a mid-single digit increase. And Levi said it plans to offset that hike with the pricing actions it’s already been taking.

“Levi has been shifting its business from a predominantly wholesale to a mixed base that has a growing share of direct-to-consumer sales. And with strong consumer demand and tightened inventories, it’s been able to sell more products at full price.”

As noted above, the price of cotton is at a 10-year high.  Year to date it’s up 47 percent.  If cotton accounts for 20 percent of the cost to make a pair of Levi’s jeans, and the company was able to negotiate product costs at a very low-single-digit inflation, then someone in the supply chain is getting severely squeezed.

How long will it be before whoever that is cries uncle, and reneges on its obligations?

For a cotton supplier, that would presumably be when the input costs – land, fertilizer, labor, and processing – are greater than their contracted cost with Levi.

In this respect, Levi may have a plan to account for higher cotton prices, for now.  But will they really get a mid-single digit increase during the second half of 2022 as management anticipates?

How much more price inflation can they pass on to consumers?

Are You Prepared for the Mass Repricing of Goods and Services?

The answers to these and other related questions are being considered by management teams across all industries.  The simple fact is when the price of raw materials and labor inflate, it becomes very difficult to plan operations and production.  Hedging strategies may help manage for rapid, short-term price spikes, but they cannot ultimately prohibit a long-term repricing of materials.

In short, we believe a long-term repricing of materials, goods, and services, is now underway.  Certainly, prices will continue to rise and fall to meet supply and demand dynamics.  Yet this will take place in a range that is being repriced higher.  It has happened before and will happen again…

In 1960, for example, a gallon of gas cost $0.31 per gallon.  Similarly, in 1960 a gallon of milk cost $1.00 per gallon.  Currently, the average price of gas and the average price of milk are $3.28 per gallon and $3.68 per gallon, respectively.  That’s upwards of a 958 percent increase for gas and 268 percent increase for milk over the last 60 years.

Sure, the price of gas and milk could come down some from today’s prices.  However, there’s no way they’ll ever drop back to 1960’s prices.  They’ve been repriced higher for good.

Why?  Are gas and milk somehow more valuable today than they were 60 years ago?

We surmise these essentials have generally the same utility value they always have.  Yet the dollar has been greatly devalued.  Moreover, this great devaluation is the consequence of rampant dollar debasement policies executed in tandem between the Fed and Congress.

The recent debt ceiling histrionics in Congress – and the elevation of the debt limit for what we believe is the 79th time since 1960 – are merely another milestone in the great dollar debasement saga.

Remember, price inflation starts with expansion of the money supply.  These days the expansion of the money supply is conducted in tandem by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury.  In short, the Treasury sells new debt to the Federal Reserve, which the Fed buys using credit created out of thin air.

Congress, through its debt ceiling increases, provides the Treasury with an unlimited tab.  Congress then spends this limitless money into the economy via spending programs galore.  As this new money flows through the economy, prices adjust higher, as the supply of money increases much faster than the supply of goods.

The point is, through policies of mass dollar debasement, we’ve now entered the next stage of the mass repricing of goods and services in the economy.  The price of just about everything will adjust upward by several hundred percent – or much, much more – over the next decade.

Pre-pandemic prices are gone forever…

…and your savings, investments, retirement, purchasing power, and the quality of life that you’ve spent a life time planning and working for will be shredded.

Are you prepared?

Quién ganó la 2da Guerra M? Hasta en EEUU se instala el nazismo…

Authored by Daniel McAdams via The Ron Paul Institute,

For Americans watching the shocking re-Nazification of Germany – where once again the ability to even buy food depends on a person’s physiological/medical status – it may be tempting to downplay the re-emergence of a nasty German political virus and scoff that, «it can’t happen here!» But it is happening here.

The Biden Administration is sinking under the weight of its feeble figurehead, who is clearly living in a world of his own creation rather than living on planet reality. As Biden’s approval ratings plummet to near-historic depths, the people who run his administration – some say it’s really led by demon Susan Rice – are not backing off their hyper-authoritarian approach to…well, everything.

In fact they’re doubling down.

Nurse shortage? Tough – get your shot. Billions of containers waiting to be unloaded and trucked to fill empty shelves? Tough – get your shot. Murder alley Chicago facing 50 percent less cops because those who don’t want the vax are being fired? Tough – get your shot. No one to fly the plane? Tough – get your shot. No teachers? Tough – get your shot!

Into this explosion of malevolent incompetence staggers US Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Department Wally Adeyemo – second-highest ranker in the entire Department. The Nigerian-born Adeyemo, who previously served as director of African American outreach for the inspiring John Kerry 2004 presidential campaign and as a senior advisor to corrupt «woke» multi-gazillionaire Larry Fink, should be given credit for at least being honest about the intentions of his bosses in the Biden Administration.

Sometimes they tell the truth by accident.

Interviewed on ABC News on Thursday, Adeyemo was asked about the thousands of container ships anchored offshore in California and elsewhere as US store shelves begin to look like Bulgaria circa 1975 – and even Santa Claus is sweating «supply chain» strangulation as Christmas quickly approaches.

It’s not because Newsom’s California is a Marxist hellhole, where the religious fundamentalism of the Green New Deal fanatics has taken massive numbers of truckers off the road.

Nope.

It’s not Biden’s vax mandate which has unleashed a massive outflux of workers from their jobs – quitting or fired – at a time of severe labor shortages.

Nope.

The problem is you. You unwashed vermin who refuse to have a cocktail of experimental goop jabbed into your arm.

In the ABC interview Adeyemo admitted what we all know: inflation is beating the hell out of middle America (though Biden’s multi-millionaire chief-of-staff laughed it off as «high class problems«).

“We are seeing high prices for some of the things that people have to buy,” Adeyemo told ABC’s Stephanie Ramos.

But it’s not the Administration’s fault. Shelves bare? Treasury’s Number Two tells America it’s all the fault of those who have not yet succumbed to his boss’s demand that you take the jab:

The reality is that the only way we’re going to get to a place where we work through this transition is if everyone in America and everyone around the world gets vaccinated.

There is a word for this and it’s not actually blackmail. It’s terrorism. Until that part of America which has to this point decided that it does not want to take an unproven medical treatment is browbeaten – or worse – into submission to Fauci’s needle, the rest of the country will continue to suffer through empty shelves and a crappy Christmas.

Too strong a word? Here’s how the dictionary defines terrorism:

Threat: You will eat nothing and you will be happy.

Political objective: Get the shot!

It’s terrorism plain and simple and the Biden Administration’s «War on Us» is taking a dangerous turn. The millions who have taken the shot are being baited to attack those who have for whatever reason – including the medically sound acquisition of natural immunity through contracting and defeating the virus – declined to take the medical procedure. In reality both groups should unite against the past two Administrations which have lied and intimidated Americans over the virus from nearly day one. But that would threaten the elites, who rule by divide-and-conquer tactics.

It’s not hyperbole to – after having closely watched the dark cloud of propaganda-induced hysteria descend on what many of us retrospectively incorrectly believed was a more-or-less a freedom-loving American spirit – start worrying about them mobilizing the boxcars and heating up the ovens.

La suba del IPC es el “blanqueo” de la inflación

Por Alejandro A. Tagliavini*

              A partir del fuerte poder de propaganda que tienen los gobiernos y los políticos, interesadamente porque ello les permite continuar con sus políticas de gasto excesivo, se ha instalado la idea de que la inflación es lo mismo que la suba del IPC, calculada según algún método “aceptable” de los muchos que hay con resultados diferentes. La idea está tan masificada que, incluso aquellos que saben de este error, se dejan arrastrar y terminan viéndolo igual.

            Los precios se mueven permanentemente y esto es una mecánica básica del funcionamiento del mercado natural ya que este movimiento es imprescindible para la eficiencia, esto es, para la mejor asignación de recursos en pos de la mayor producción y distribución -empezando por los que lo necesitan con más urgencia- de las mercaderías y servicios.

              Ahora, por otro lado, llama la atención cuando se produce una enorme catarata en el aumento de precios de manera desordenada. Pero esto no es inflación, es lo que vimos, valga la redundancia, un aumento de precios en catarata desordenada. La pregunta es por qué se produce esto. Y eso intentaremos analizar.

            De un lado de la ecuación están los bienes y servicios y del otro el peso. No es posible pensar que los bienes y servicios puedan variar su cotización propia de esa manera salvo que ocurra una catástrofe externa de magnitud extraordinaria, como una feroz guerra nuclear, ya que es un principio de la naturaleza el de la evolución por maduración y nunca por revolución, es decir, las cosas en la naturaleza se modifican solo paso a paso. De modo que, el problema debe estar en el peso.

           La clásica curva de oferta y demanda es incontestable, es una simple lectura de la realidad: cuanto más bajo es el precio, más gente quiere comprar y, cuanto más alto, más gente quiere vender. O las inversas. Y las contrapartes, esto es, cuánta menos oferta existe de un bien o servicio, más se cotiza y cuánto más oferta, más se desvaloriza. Entonces, con el peso ocurre, pues eso: cuanta más oferta, más se desvaloriza. Así, un exceso de oferta monetaria por sobre la demanda provoca la inflación real, la desvalorización del peso.     

           Entonces, en Argentina ¿suben los precios? ¿Sube el IPC? ¿O se desvaloriza el peso? Veremos. Comparemos la desvalorización del peso con la suba del IPC.

            En un mercado tan distorsionado -por ende, ineficiente- como el argentino, en donde el Estado permanentemente interfiere artificialmente, es muy difícil encontrar patrones confiables, por ejemplo, es muy difícil estimar cuánto se desvaloriza el peso. Así las cosas, el mejor patrón para estimar estas devaluaciones es el dólar blue, ya que es el parámetro más libre -con menos interferencias artificiales del gobierno- para evaluar la devaluación, la inflación, del peso. Y el siguiente gráfico publicado por El Cronista muestra el movimiento del blue:

                     Como se observa en el gráfico, el movimiento del blue se disparó en 2020 y pero en lo que va de 2021 se ha tranquilizado y variado mucho menos que el IPC, como se deduce de la siguiente figura de Invecq que marca la “inflación” -la suba del IPC, en rigor- promedio mensual:

            En esta curva podemos destacar que el promedio mensual en 2020 es menor al del 2021. Comparando ambos gráficos, llama la atención que el blue se dispara en 2020 cuando el IPC está más tranquilo y el IPC se dispara ahora que el blue está más calmo. Es que el aumento del IPC actual es solo el blanqueo de la inflación, como veremos.

             La emisión monetaria del 2020 ha sido estrafalaria. En diciembre del 2019 la cantidad total de dinero en poder del público -efectivo, cuentas corrientes, cajas de ahorro y plazos fijos- llegaba a los era de $ 3,7 B pero en junio de 2021 ya alcanzaba a $ 8,5 B, un aumento del 126% mientras el IPC subía “solo” un 70% acumulado. La diferencia es enorme y eso es un IPC reprimido, no inflación reprimida ya que no puede reprimirse desde que es intrínseca, es decir, si se imprime demás necesariamente perderá valor independientemente de que los precios se fijen.

             En cambio, este año 2021 se estaba -veremos cómo sigue porque pareciera acelerarse- emitiendo relativamente poco. Cuenta Roberto Cachanosky -y lo dibuja en el gráfico siguiente- que el BCRA en lo que va del año ya emitió $ 1,11 B, el 70% en los últimos 3 meses. Pero 1,11 B significa una expansión de alrededor del 13% de la base monetaria, a lo que hay que descontarle el aumento de la demanda de moneda que solo el mercado conoce, pero, en principio, debería darse por el (débil) rebote del PBI y porque la suba del IPC -la “inflación”- supone la demanda de más moneda para comprar el mismo producto.

              El IPC de septiembre 2021 tuvo una variación mensual del 3,5%, interanual del 52,5% y acumulada en lo que va del año del 37%. Notemos que la segunda categoría con mayor aumento fue “IPC Núcleo” (3,3%) y por último los Regulados, que registraron un aumento del 3%. En parte por esto, en la última semana el Gobierno ha decidido el congelamiento de precios de 1.245 productos hasta enero de 2022 con la idea de frenar la “inflación” -que confunde con el IPC- lo que va a empeorar la cosa porque lo que se está reprimiendo es a los precios que, como dijimos son fundamentales para la eficiencia económica. Ergo, esto va a perjudicar a la economía bajando la demanda de dinero, ergo, empujando a la inflación.  

             O sea, lo que aquí ha sucedido es que los precios han sido reprimidos no así la inflación que no puede contenerse ni reprimirse por mucho que se lo intenten porque eso significaría desestimar la curva de oferta y demanda como quién desestima la ley de la gravedad. Entonces, la inflación ha quedado en evidencia en el aumento del blue en 2020 mientras que la represión de los precios se mostró al no subir el IPC tanto como la inflación real.

            Esa represión ahora en 2021 está estallando y por ello el IPC sube más que el blue que marca mejor a la inflación. Y el saneo del frente fiscal incorporará un incremento tarifario, entre los “regulados” que gatillará parte de este proceso para el año próximo. Y por ello el consenso de los analistas elevó en 3 puntos su estimación para 2022, que posiciona la “inflación” -la suba del IPC en rigor- en torno al 46% para el año próximo, similar a la actual.

               Además, desde el frente cambiario, las apuestas siguen subiendo. La curva de Rofex indica que muchos estiman que el ritmo de devaluación oficial se acelerará a partir del mes de diciembre, pasadas las elecciones, y que tendrá su mayor salto en el mes de enero, con una suba cercana al 6%.

              El siguiente gráfico muestra como el dólar oficial no es más que otro precio regulado -reprimido- y que se utiliza para contener al IPC dado que muchos insumos y demás precios están en dólares.

             Obviamente, en cuanto al tipo de cambio, si bien es cierto que la devaluación oficial impacta sobre los precios, sobre el IPC, no impacta sobre la emisión monetaria, sobre la inflación. 

            Además, hay que tener en cuenta que el dólar se fortalece a nivel global -mejor dicho, se debilita menos que las otras monedas- como se ve en el gráfico siguiente y se encarecen los precios globales. El costo de la energía continúa en aumento y, según la Agencia Internacional de Energía, la actual crisis energética impulsará la demanda de petróleo en 500.000 b/d durante los próximos 6 meses, ya que los precios récord del gas, el carbón y la electricidad desencadenan el cambio de combustible.

                  Lo que, por cierto, ha ayudado a la noticia de la semana, esto es, que el Bitcoin (BTC) tocó los USD 62.940 horas después de la apertura de Wall Street el viernes pasado, al llegar la noticia de que los reguladores de la SEC, de EE.UU., estarían a punto de aprobar dos solicitudes de fondos (ETF) después de años de trámites. ETFs que tendrán futuros de Bitcoin de CME como activo subyacente, en lugar de Bitcoin en sí. Y se espera que la SEC comience a decidir el destino de los ETF «físicos» el próximo mes.

*Asesor Senior en The Cedar Portfolio  y miembro del Consejo Asesor del Center on Global Prosperity, de Oakland, California

@alextagliavini

www.alejandrotagliavini.com

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